How Promotion Decisions Are Really Made in Large Organizations
Understanding Succession Planning — and What It Means for Your Career
For many years, I was mostly an observer of people moves in the organizations where I worked. Some decisions seemed obvious, while others were much more difficult to understand when looking at them from a distance.
Over time, I moved into roles where I started designing organizations myself — first within my own team, then through cross-departmental moves and eventually through broader organizational changes. Today, I know the context, trade-offs and consequences behind many of those decisions.
At the same time, I am still an employee observing changes at higher organizational levels, where I don’t have the full picture or know all the decision criteria.
Having both perspectives has taught me something important: a decision that seems logical when you know the entire context may look completely different when you only see the final move.
Fundamentals: Why Succession Planning Exists
Employees want to grow. Organizations need the right people in the right roles. As a result, organizational changes are inevitable — and large organizations try to prepare for them in advance.
This is where succession planning comes in.
For critical roles, managers ideally want more than one potential successor — some ready now, others who could grow into the role over time.
Internal promotion and succession bring clear advantages. They already know the organization and have a track record that managers can evaluate, which reduces the risk of transition. Internal moves also send an important signal to the wider organization: career progression is possible and internal talent is valued.
Sometimes, however, there is no suitable internal successor. That is valuable information too. It may trigger an external search, but it can also help identify high-potential employees who could grow into the role in the mid-term and clarify which experiences or capabilities they still need to build.
Succession planning is therefore not about deciding the future in advance. It is about preparing options for different versions of the future.
The Domino Effect of a Single Role Change
Succession planning rarely involves moving just one person.
One move creates a vacancy, filling that vacancy may create another one, and very quickly a single decision turns into a domino effect of organizational changes.
This is something employees don’t always see from the outside.
When several changes are announced around the same time, they may look like a series of independent decisions. In reality, some of them may simply be consequences of one critical move that started the entire chain.
This is why succession planning quickly becomes scenario planning. Managers are not only considering who should move into one role. They also need to understand what each move will trigger — and how the vacancies created along the way could be filled.
The Whole Organization Is One Big Puzzle
During succession planning, an organization can start to look like one big puzzle.
Some people have highly specialized experience that makes them a strong fit for a limited number of roles. Others have more versatile profiles that allow managers to consider them for several different moves. This flexibility becomes particularly valuable in succession planning, because it gives the organization more ways to solve the puzzle when circumstances change.
During succession planning sessions, managers build different people-and-role scenarios around possible future changes. Some start with moves they actively want to make — for example, rotating someone into a new role to strengthen the organization or develop that person further. Others are contingency scenarios for events they cannot predict, such as a resignation, unexpected leave or a sudden business need. Until something happens, these scenarios remain possibilities. But once a trigger appears, managers already have a better understanding of who could move where — and which alternative configurations might work if their preferred option is
Inside the Succession Planning Discussion
At its best, succession planning brings together organizational needs and people’s aspirations. The objective is to understand where people could grow next while building the strongest possible organization.
The succession planning discussion usually starts with the employee’s aspirations, performance and potential. The direct manager can recommend possible next steps, but their perspective is not the only one in the room.
Other managers bring observations from cross-functional projects, meetings and everyday interactions. A potential future manager may also have a view on whether the employee’s experience, strengths and way of working would fit their team and the roles being considered.
This is why your professional reputation extends far beyond your relationship with your own manager. Your manager’s support can put you into the succession discussion, but how others experience working with you can influence which opportunities you are considered for.
Being Promotion-Ready Doesn’t Mean You’re the Best Fit for Every Vacancy
There is an important difference between being seen as ready for the next level and being the strongest candidate for one particular vacancy.
An employee may aspire to become a Senior Brand Manager or Senior Key Account Manager. Their manager may support that ambition, and the wider organization may agree that they have the performance and potential required to reach that level.
But once a specific vacancy opens, the question changes:
Who is the strongest fit for this particular role?
Different roles at the same organizational level can require very different experience. One brand may be facing a particular business challenge. One customer may require capabilities that another does not. Candidates are therefore compared not only based on their general readiness for the next level, but also on what the specific role requires at that moment. This means that not receiving a particular promotion does not necessarily mean the organization no longer believes in your potential. You can be promotion-ready and still not be the strongest fit for every vacancy at your next level.
Why Promotion Decisions Don’t Always Look Logical from the Outside
In reality, the organizational puzzle will rarely be perfect.
Sometimes the available candidate may be slightly too early, slightly too experienced or simply not the theoretical perfect fit. There will inevitably be compromises.
An organization may accept a less-than-perfect solution in one role in order to solve a much more important problem somewhere else. The objective is not necessarily to find the perfect solution for every individual vacancy, but to find the strongest overall solution for the organization.
This is one reason why organizational changes can sometimes be difficult to understand from the outside. We rarely know all the roles, candidates, dependencies and limitations that had to be considered at the same time.
We see and assess individual moves. The people making the decisions are trying to solve the whole puzzle.
What Should You Do Differently Once You Understand Succession Planning?
Understanding how promotion and succession planning decisions are made can also change how you approach your own career.
Make sure your aspirations are understood
Your manager cannot consider you for opportunities they don’t know you want.
Be clear about where you would like to grow — and make sure you understand whether your manager sees your performance and potential in the same way. If there is a gap between your aspirations and how ready you are perceived to be, knowing it early gives you time to work on it.
Succession planning often looks beyond today’s vacancies. This means the conversation about your next move should happen before the opportunity appears.
Don’t define your next move too narrowly
The more narrowly you define your next move, the more dependent you become on one specific vacancy appearing at the right moment.
That role may not open for several years. And when it does, it may attract several strong candidates.
Think of your career direction as a compass rather than a predefined path. Know where you want to go, but remain open to different routes that can take you there. Flexibility gives you more chances to fit into the succession puzzle when opportunities appear.
Build your professional reputation before you need it
Your professional reputation is built through everyday interactions — long before a vacancy appears.
How you collaborate, solve problems, deliver on commitments and work across teams shapes how others experience you. And as we have seen, those opinions can eventually enter succession discussions.
Don’t start thinking about your reputation when you want the promotion. By then, other people already have one.
Final Thoughts
A promotion decision is rarely the result of one conversation on one particular day.
It is the outcome of performance, potential, aspirations, reputation, organizational needs and opportunity coming together — often long before a particular vacancy appears.
Succession planning helps organizations prepare for the future, but it cannot predict it. People leave, priorities change, organizations evolve and opportunities sometimes appear at unexpected moments.
You cannot control which vacancy will open next, who else will be considered or exactly when the opportunity will come.
What you can control is how ready you are when it does.
Build your performance, capabilities and reputation. Be clear about your aspirations, but flexible about the path that takes you there.
You don’t need to predict your next opportunity. You need to become a strong option when it appears.
Key Takeaways
Succession planning is about preparing options, not deciding the future in advance.
Promotion decisions are rarely based on a single factor. Performance and experience matter, but so do the capabilities required to operate successfully at the next level.
Your professional reputation extends beyond your direct manager. It is built through everyday interactions across the organization and can influence which opportunities you are considered for.
Organizations optimize the overall talent puzzle, not each vacancy independently. A decision that seems surprising from the outside may make more sense when you see the wider organizational picture.
Being promotion-ready does not mean being the strongest fit for every vacancy at your next level.—————
FAQ
How are promotion decisions actually made?
Promotion decisions usually combine what is relatively easy to see and compare with what is much less visible from the outside.
The more visible part includes experience, career path, track record, technical expertise and demonstrated performance. Employees can often compare these elements themselves — how long someone has been in a role, what they have delivered and which experiences they have already built.
But promotion decisions also consider the capabilities required to operate successfully at the next level. Depending on the role, these may include leadership, judgment, collaboration, ability to influence, executive presence or the ability to navigate greater complexity and responsibility.
These capabilities are much harder to compare from the outside. They become visible over time through everyday work — how someone handles difficult situations, works with others, takes responsibility, influences decisions and operates when things don’t go according to plan. This is also how professional reputation is gradually built across an organization.
Promotion decisions therefore consider both: what someone has already demonstrated and whether their broader capabilities indicate that they can succeed with the greater scope and expectations of the next role.
This is why two employees may look similarly qualified on paper but progress at different speeds. The difference is not necessarily in the experience, results or technical skills everyone can see. It may sit in the less visible capabilities required to operate successfully at the next level.
Why was I passed over for promotion?
If you were passed over for promotion, the first step is to understand what type of promotion you were expecting. Being passed over for a higher title within your current role is different from not being selected for a new role with broader responsibilities.
If the promotion was within your current role, ask your manager what the formal expectations are for the next level, how you currently compare with those expectations and which specific gaps prevented the promotion. This can help uncover performance, capability or behavioral areas that still need to be strengthened.
If the promotion was to a new, bigger role that was given to another candidate, the answer may be less straightforward. Your manager may not be able to openly compare your strengths and weaknesses with those of another employee — and they shouldn’t need to.
Instead of asking, “Why was that person better than me?”, ask:
“Which capabilities or experiences would make me a stronger candidate for a similar opportunity in the future?”
This shifts the conversation away from comparing yourself with another person and towards understanding what you can develop for the next opportunity.
Do promotions get decided before jobs are posted?
Sometimes — and this is one of the reasons succession planning exists.
Organizations often discuss potential successors and possible people moves before a vacancy actually opens. As a result, when a role becomes available, there may already be a strong internal candidate who has been considered for that position well in advance.
This doesn’t necessarily mean that the promotion has been formally decided before the job is posted. Some organizations are required to advertise vacancies internally even when a strong potential successor has already been identified.
When there is no obvious ready-now successor, an internal job posting becomes particularly valuable. It allows employees who may not have been considered during succession planning to proactively express their interest and potentially bring another strong candidate into the discussion. And sometimes this is exactly how an unexpected candidate emerges — someone who wasn’t part of the original succession scenario, but whose experience turns out to be a very strong fit for the role.
The organization may also search externally, particularly when it wants to broaden the candidate pool or when the capabilities needed for the role are not readily available internally.
So, pragmatically, a job posting can sometimes indicate that there is no clear internal successor — but you should not assume that an advertised role means there are no strong internal candidates already being considered.
Can my manager support my promotion and I still not get promoted?
Yes. Your manager plays an important role in supporting your development and recommending you for promotion, but they are rarely the only person involved in the decision.
Your direct manager knows your performance, capabilities and ambitions better than many other decision-makers. But others across the organization also form opinions about you through their own interactions — during meetings, workshops, cross-functional projects, presentations or simply through working together.
Employees sometimes underestimate how much these interactions matter because they naturally focus on performing well for their own manager. Your professional reputation is built far beyond your own team — not by making sure senior leaders know everything you do, but through the many small interactions in which they see how you operate.
This means your manager can genuinely believe you are ready for promotion while other decision-makers may have a different perception of your readiness, or another candidate may simply be considered a stronger fit for the particular role.
If your manager supported your promotion but you were not selected, ask for feedback beyond your direct performance:
“What would I need to demonstrate more consistently for the wider organization to see me as ready for the next level?”
Understanding that gap can be much more useful than simply knowing that your manager supports your growth.
Does being promotion-ready mean I should get the next available role?
No. Being promotion-ready means that you have demonstrated a strong combination of experience, performance and broader capabilities required to operate successfully at the next level. It does not mean that every role at that level will automatically be the right role for you.
Once a specific vacancy appears, the question changes from “Is this person ready for the next level?” to “Who is the strongest fit for this particular role?”
The role may require specific experience that another candidate has. The business situation may favor a particular profile. Or there may simply be several promotion-ready employees, with one of them being a slightly stronger fit for that opportunity at that moment.
Not getting the role therefore doesn’t necessarily mean you did something wrong, that the organization doesn’t appreciate you or even that you are not ready for promotion. It may simply mean that someone else was considered a stronger fit for this particular opportunity.
This is why it is useful to separate promotion readiness from entitlement to the next vacancy. Continue building the capabilities and experience that make you a strong candidate, but remain open to different opportunities.
Being promotion-ready means you are ready to be considered. It doesn’t mean the next available role is automatically yours.
About the Author
For more than 20 years, I have built my career in multinational organizations, growing from a trainee to a General Manager leading multiple countries. Along the way, I made 13 career moves—both vertical promotions and horizontal transitions across different functions and responsibilities.
Leading teams of more than 300 people across 20+ nationalities has given me first-hand experience of developing talent, discussing succession and making people and organizational decisions at different levels. Over the years, my perspective has evolved from being an employee trying to understand why certain people moves happen to being a leader involved in succession planning, talent discussions and organizational design.
Having experienced both perspectives has shaped how I understand promotion decisions in large organizations. The insights shared in this article are based not on academic theory, but on years of observing, developing and making decisions about talent—and seeing how different a people move can look depending on how much of the organizational puzzle you can see.